Title: Emerging Digital Convergence Risk: Mapping Behaviour Across Encrypted Ecosystems
Confidential Intelligence Preview
April 2025
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: This confidential brief outlines critical behavioural patterns emerging within anonymized darknet environments, where encrypted criminal tactics and extremist fieldcraft increasingly intersect. It identifies early indicators of digital hybridization, assesses implications for national security, and introduces the rationale for an integrated threat detection framework.
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[Geopolitical Risk]
Title: From Covert Cell to Policy Shift: Jordan’s Strategic Realignment on the Muslim Brotherhood
April 2025
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: In April 2025, Jordan dismantled a covert militant cell linked to unauthorized missile development, triggering a major policy shift against the Muslim Brotherhood.
This Insight examines the tactical disruption, its strategic implications, and Jordan’s evolving security doctrine.
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[Regional Risk]
Title: Iran’s Proxy Network and the Growing Risk of Regional War in the Middle East
August 2024
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: As tensions escalate over Gaza, Iran prepares its proxy network for potential coordinated action across Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
This Insight analyzes Iran’s asymmetric strategy, the operational capabilities of its militias, and the serious risk of a wider regional war.
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[Regional Security Risk]
Title: The Sahel’s Security Crisis: ISIS Expansion and Regional Destabilization
July 2023
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: Following losses in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has shifted its operational focus to Africa’s Sahel region, exploiting security vacuums to expand.
This Insight analyzes the group's growing influence across West Africa, emerging threats to Sudan, and the broader implications for regional stability.
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[Regional Conflict Risk]
Title: Sudan’s War of Attrition: The Battle Between the Army and Rapid Support Forces
April 2023
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: After a failed surprise offensive in April 2023, Sudan’s conflict between the army and RSF descended into a brutal war of attrition.
This Insight examines the structural weaknesses of both sides, the dynamics of urban warfare, and the challenges to halting the conflict.
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[Regional Conflict Risk]
Title: Sudan’s Power Struggle: The Army–RSF Conflict and the Risk of Prolonged Civil War
April 2023
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: In April 2023, open fighting erupted between Sudan’s army and RSF forces, threatening to plunge the country into civil war.
This Insight analyzes the military dynamics, external influences, and humanitarian risks shaping the conflict’s trajectory.
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[Regional Dynamics Risk]
Title: Regional Realignment: The Strategic Impact of the Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement
March 2023
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: The China-brokered Saudi-Iranian agreement reshapes regional alignments, weakening Israeli and U.S. strategies in the Middle East.
This Insight analyzes the strategic ripple effects across Gulf politics, proxy conflicts, and the emerging multipolar dynamics in the region.
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[Emerging Warfare Risk]
Title: Drones as Primary Weapons: Reshaping the Ukraine–Russia Battlefield
November 2022
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: Combat drones like the Bayraktar TB-2 and Shahed-136 have redefined battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, challenging conventional air defenses.
This Insight explores the operational shift toward unmanned systems, their cost asymmetries, and the future of drone warfare.
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[Jihadist Threat Landscape]
Title: Al-Qaeda After Zawahiri: Leadership Transition and the Enduring Threat Landscape
August 2022
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: The death of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri marks a symbolic victory but leaves the group’s operational threat intact.
This Insight explores the leadership succession battle, the Taliban alliance, and the ongoing risks posed by a resilient jihadist movement.
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[Border Security & Proxy Threats]
Title: Border Tensions and Proxy Expansion: Iran’s Influence Over Syria and Regional Threats
May 2022
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: In May 2022, Jordan intercepted a major drug smuggling operation from Syria, revealing deeper infiltration by Iranian-backed proxies.
This Insight analyzes the expanding Iranian influence in Syria, its destabilizing effects on Jordan, and the broader security risks across the region.
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[Strategic Geopolitical Risk]
Title: The Last 48 Hours Before Invasion: Strategic Calculations Behind Russia’s Incursion into Ukraine
February 2022
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: In February 2022, diplomacy failed to prevent Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
This Insight examines Putin’s phased strategy, Russia’s exploitation of NATO divisions, and the broader geopolitical factors shaping the path to war.
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[Terrorism and Ideological threat Risk]
Title: Leadership Decapitation and Ideological Resilience: The Future of ISIS Post-al-Qurayshi
February 2022
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: In February 2022, ISIS leader al-Qurayshi was killed during a U.S. raid, yet the organization’s ideological resilience endures.
This Insight examines ISIS’s structural durability, the limited strategic impact of leadership losses, and the group’s ongoing threat trajectory.
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[Border Security and Regional Threat Risk]
Title: Border Instability and Strategic Responses: Jordan’s Escalating Tensions with Syria
January 2022
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: In January 2022, Jordan faced escalating violence and smuggling operations along its border with Syria, exposing critical national security risks.
This Insight analyzes the structural threats, regional dynamics, and Jordan’s potential defensive strategies amid growing proxy infiltration.
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[Human Rights and Internal Stability Risk]
Title: Heavy Weapons Against Civilians: Sudan’s Escalating Military Repression
December 2021
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: Following Sudan’s October 2021 coup, security forces deployed heavy weaponry against civilian protesters, raising serious international law concerns.
This Insight examines the violations of proportionality, sources of the weapons, and the implications for Sudan’s internal stability and international accountability.
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[Political Stability and Proxy Conflict Risk]
Title: Drone Strike and Political Tensions: Assassination Attempt on Iraq’s Prime Minister
November 2021
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: In November 2021, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi survived a drone-borne assassination attempt amid rising post-election tensions.
This Insight analyzes the operational dynamics of the attack, the role of proxy elements, and the broader implications for Iraq’s political stability and regional alignments.
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[State Collapse and Terrorism Risk]
Title: Evacuation Under Fire: Kabul Airport Chaos and Strategic Fallout
August 2021
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: In August 2021, twin bombings disrupted evacuation efforts at Kabul Airport, exposing severe operational failures and rising threats from ISIS-K.
This Insight examines the tactical collapse, the Taliban’s governance dilemma, and Afghanistan’s looming risk of state failure.
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[Nuclear Security Risk]
Title: Nuclear Coexistence and Strategic Realignment: Iran’s Emerging Deterrence Posture
February 2021
Published by HMSC Intelligence Division
Summary: As nuclear negotiations stall, Iran inches closer to a deterrent capability that could reshape Middle East security dynamics.
This Insight explores the limits of military options against Iran, Tehran’s evolving strategy, and the broader implications for regional arms competition and diplomatic recalibration.
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HMSC publishes strategic insights on geopolitical risks, ideological movements, proxy dynamics, and emerging security threats.
Each briefing reflects independent assessments based on structured open-source research, regional expertise, and strategic forecasting.
Insights are designed for policymakers, security professionals, and decision-makers requiring concise, forward-looking analysis.
Client-specific intelligence remains confidential and is not published.