​The war in Sudan is a struggle for power

It is difficult to provide an accurate military analysis of what is currently taking place in Sudan due to the lack of accurate information, but in general what is happening there is a struggle for power between two rival generals: The head of Sudan's armed forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country's de facto leader since a military coup in October 2021, and former war general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and deputy head of the Sudanese government in the Sovereign Council. 

The Sudanese army has more military capabilities than the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the army is expected to excel in combat, especially as it has warplanes, unlike the RSF, fighting without air support will be difficult to win the battle.

The war will expand and become a street war, a war of gangs and gangs within cities. RSF will find it difficult to fight this battle without the support of tribal groups such as the Janjaweed (militias), but in the long run, according to the available data, the Sudanese army will be victorious.

If RSF uses guerrilla warfare to prolong the war, it may take longer, but that will depend on the amount of military, logistical and other resources available to RSF, and thus the battle can spread, and turn into a civil war if those resources are available, but the war will come to an end for the army.

When is that battle going to end?

That cannot be known, as the question depends on the amount of resources available for RSF, In addition, there are external parties that have a role to play in Sudan and the events taking place there.

Decisiveness depends on the army's resources and plans to besiege the RSF inside the cities and other military tactics it will use during battles. The army is more likely to push them out of the cities, but that will take a long time.

Regarding the discussion by some analysts about the possibility of Wagner groups taking part in the battles in favor of one of the two sides of the battle. In general, some analysts are not neutral and, as a result, it is not possible to rely on every analysis, they say.

Wagner is unlikely to enter Sudan as a military force and take part in the ongoing war, but it may support the RSF logistically with military resources and weapons.

Weapons should be restricted to open areas

Video clips have appeared in which the two parties to the conflict affirm their respect for international laws and that they do not commit massacres against prisoners or war crimes against civilians. However, both sides commit war crimes by using heavy weapons in cities, such as aircraft, machine guns, anti-aircraft, tanks and armoured vehicles and so on.

The use of these weapons in cities is a war crime in accordance with the Geneva and Rome Conventions. Such weapons should not be used in cities, but rather in open areas, and there is no value to a military victory on either side, as it would be based on the destruction of Sudan and the killing of its people.

The Security Council must take decisive measures to stop this war, since it is unlikely that the Arab League has the capacity to stop this war, because there are foreign parties involved and there is chaos in Sudan, some of them are regional countries while others are international countries, and many of those parties supported RSF, and some supported the Sudanese military.​

Clashes between the Sudanese army and the country's paramilitary force (RSF) over
tensions linked to the transition from military to civil rule, threatening to destabilize Sudan and the wider region.

Until recently, they were allies who worked together to overthrow Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and played a central role in the military coup in 2021.

​​​April 20, 2023

​by Hamzeh Abu Nowar​

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Hamzeh Abu Nowar is a senior research analyst for HMSC. Covering the MENA region. He has conducted research on political violence, extremism and international conflict in the MENA region.

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The war in Sudan is a struggle for power

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