Hamzeh Abu Nowar is a senior research analyst for HMSC. Covering the MENA region. He has conducted research on political violence, extremism and international conflict in the MENA region.
April 30, 2023
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Sudan: Fighting to death
by Hamzeh Abu Nowar
Fighting has continued in Sudan between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which failed to settle the matter on the first day of the fighting. This raises questions about why Hemedti did not succeed in his sudden attack, which he carried out on Saturday, April 15, 2023.
To date, neither side has succeeded, despite the uncertainty on the military scene, contradictory statements and information war between the two sides.
Although both sides exchanged accusations that each had launched an attack against the other's headquarters, RSF's attack on the capital and some cities was remarkable, in other words, outside their regular areas of presence and their initiative to target army headquarters and commanders, among them is the commander of the military institution and the head of the governing council General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his place of residence, and sensitive institutions of the state.
Reasons behind RSF's failure
The ambiguity of military information and the lack of intelligence were two major factors, as neither RSF nor the Sudanese army could resolve the battles for one or the other. What RSF attempted to do is militarily described as a "strategic surprise", but it failed to achieve the required decisive effect, despite the use of the element of surprise. Furthermore, the lack of information and the inaccuracy of the attack, RSF was thus surprised by the response of the Sudanese army, which thwarted its campaign against it and its leadership.
In addition to these reasons, RSF lacks support in the areas where it is currently in conflict with the Sudanese Army, contrary to the periphery of the regions in which it operates. In fact, even in those areas, there are those who accuse the Hemedti forces of having committed war crimes and murders against civilians during the time of Omar al-Bashir, which was not accepted.
Urban areas
One of the most significant reasons is that RSF is not accustomed to fighting in urban, civilian and street areas, as they are not like Darfur and the open areas where they are used to fighting.
Urban fighting and street warfare are completely different. Urban war requires more attack than defence, and intelligence and information become scarce. On the one hand, in urban warfare, the use of air power and artillery bombardment is a war crime and is totally inconsistent with the Rome and Geneva Conventions. On the other, RSF's use of heavy weapons such as combat vehicles, including anti-aircraft guns, and the weapons it has are suited to open areas and not civilian populated areas, and thus their continuous use is also considered a war crime.
Air Force
RSF's lack of air force is also one of the main reasons for its inability to win on the first day of the clashes. It is very difficult for RSF to win this battle without air power. However, this factor, which is supposedly in favour of the Sudanese army, lacks the intelligence information and the required technological capabilities in order to invest it in the way necessary to achieve what is expected in the army's operations against RSF.
Street warfare and attrition
The Sudanese army is facing a street war that cannot be won easily or quickly, instead, this type of war takes time. So far, it has been a defensive war rather than an offensive war, with an exchange of bombing and mutual control.
It is a slow and attritional war. RSF needs combat resources to support its military effort against Sudan's army, which will lead to the continuation and expansion of the war, since the Sudanese army is also supported by external parties.
Military supplies
There is a battle of existence between Hemedti and Al-Burhan and it is not an ordinary war, therefore a ceasefire will be very difficult.
Sudan is ready for arms smuggling operations and its access to RSF. The use of the air force to stop RSF's military supplies is crucial and this will be a very difficult task, as immediate and direct intelligence is required to deal with any supply of weapons and equipment across the border.
The Sudanese army will struggle to limit support to Hemedti's forces, despite the advantage of air force, since there are international and regional interests behind the prolongation of the war, and they will supply arms to RSF.
End game
Far from military solutions, the solution can only be found through intervention by the Security Council. This is the only way to stop the escalation and the fight, neither by the League of Arab States nor by the African Union, they are broken tools that cannot stop the fighting in Sudan. The Security Council can enforce peace by force, by international forces coming into the region.
It is foreseen that the Sudanese fighting parties will not respond to demands for mediation and negotiations. The current data confirm that the current combat is a war of existence between the two Generals.
It is worth noting that the Sudanese army called the RSF “Hemedti”, vice-president of the Council of Sovereignty, a "rebel". These forces were formed in 2013 to assist government forces in their fight against the rebel movements in the Darfur region and safeguarding security. In addition, participated in the overthrow of the Al-Bashir regime.