Diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis have so far been unsuccessful, particularly the meeting of the "Normandy Quartet". Besides the failure of French President Emmanuel Macron with Russian President Vladimir Putin to ease tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
The decision to go to war is now entirely in Putin's hands, and nobody knows what's going on in his mind, but Ukraine will go to war on its own if it begins.
In our view, sending arms to Ukraine is nothing more than pressure cards on Russian President Putin who wishes to exert influence and control over Ukraine with European guarantees not to deploy arms in Ukraine, in particular missiles, in order to preserve his borders as well as sphere of influence and control.
If Putin gets what he wants in terms of guarantees, which means that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO and does not threaten the sphere of influence concerning Russian security, he will reach an agreement without going to war. However, if Putin does not get the guarantees he is looking for, then it is very likely that Putin could wage a war to besiege Kiev in order to obtain concessions.
The formation of Russian forces now gives the impression that Russia laying siege to Ukraine, but the attack will take place in stages to achieve a settlement, which is the political goal that the Russian president is looking for.
An unclassified U.S. intelligence document handout on Russian military movement near the Ukrainian border, obtained by The Washington Post which states: "The unclassified U.S. intelligence document obtained by The Post, which includes satellite photos, shows Russian forces massing in four locations. Currently, 50 battlefield tactical groups are deployed, along with 'newly arrived' tanks and artillery, according to the document. While Ukrainian assessments have said Russia has approximately 94,000 troops near the border, the U.S. map puts the number at 70,000 — but it predicts a buildup to as many as 175,000"
How Putin will initiate his attack?
Putin will launch his attack with air power and missiles since they represent 60% of Russia's arsenal of firepower, starting with Donbass in the east and Crimea towards Moldova, which includes Putin’s separatists. In addition to a massive cyber war that strikes the command, control, energy and financial institutions to paralyze the country, which can lead to concessions.
If Putin fails to secure the concessions he seeks, he will advance to besiege Kiev in order to obtain some concessions and start negotiating settlements, but he knows perfectly well that the price of this war will weigh on him due to future resistance and insurgency.
The attack will probably take place between February and March due to the fact that the weather conditions of the frozen ground will facilitate heavy armor and logistical operations. However, if he delays the attack in March and outward, then he might face a sea of mud, which will hamper his manoeuvre on the ground, but it will not stop him. Putin has been planning such a strategy for a long time. Furthermore, economic sanctions will not deter Russia's several incursions into Ukraine. Also the Olympic Games will not alter Putin's decision to invade Ukraine which will end on February 20.
Putin capitalizes on the disagreement between NATO countries, as well as the disagreement between Macron and Biden, along with the disagreement between the EU and NATO members regarding Ukraine. Furthermore, they will face gas-related problems that affect their energy, economy and way of life.
Article 5 of the NATO charter does not apply to Ukraine because it is not a member of NATO and therefore NATO will not take part in the war, and if Putin invades, more than likely Ukraine will fight alone.
The possibility of nuclear war, as some suggest, is under no circumstances an option because it will determine the fate of the world over the next 50 years, and all parties will avoid it.
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The Last 48 Hours of Diplomacy Before Putin's Incursion
Hamzeh Abu Nowar is a senior research analyst for HMSC. Covering the MENA region. He has conducted research on political violence, extremism and international conflict in the MENA region.
MENA Research Senior Analyst
by Hamzeh Abu Nowar